RetroPsychoKinesis Experiment Summary

Last updated: Monday 2016 January 11 13:59 UTC

This report is updated daily


Overall Summary

Total experiments: 298125
Number of subjects: 28137
Total tries: 305280000
Total hits: 152637465
Overall z: 0.2902 standard deviations

"Subjects" is the number of different E-mail addresses or "handles" in the log file; there is no assurance a given individual may not have entered a number of different identities, either intentionally or by accident. The number of experiments includes only "for the record" experiments, not those designated in advance by the subject as "practice". Since each experiment involves 1024 bits, the total number of "Tries" in the next line is 2981251024, or 305280000. Examination of the logged bit sequences sent to the subjects shows that 152637465 of the total of 305280000 bits were "Hits"--they agree with the subject's previously-chosen goal. There were, then, 2535 fewer bits among a total of 305280000 consistent with the subjects' intent to bias the generator. This is equivalent to changing one bit in every 120426 in the direction opposed to that chosen by the subject. The measured bias amounts to 0.2902 standard deviations.

Hit Histogram

The following chart summarises the results of all for-the-record experiments (excluding runs designated in advance as "practice" runs by the subject, which are logged for completeness, but do not figure in the statistical analysis) performed since the RPKP experiments were begun in January of 1997.

RPKP Experiment Hit Histogram vs. Expectation

The blue curve gives the normal distribution for a large number of trials of 1024 events with probability 0.5. (For a number of trials as large as 1024, the binomial and normal distributions are equal on the scale of this plot.) The red boxes show the actual number of experimental runs which resulted in the given number of hits. A "hit" is defined as the number of bits in the 1024 bit stream which agreed with the subject's previously chosen one-or-zero goal.

Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Any experiment involving a random data source can be expected to, in the absence of perturbing influences, follow a random walk around the most probable value. As the number of experiments increases, overall divergences should decrease. When examining the results of such experiments, it's important to satisfy yourself that any non-chance effect you observe doesn't result from the experimenter choosing to show you results at a peak or trough of a series which is swinging to both sides of the chance expectation with a mean value equal to chance. The following is a deviation plot of the all 298125 RPKP experiments to date; it shows the absolute divergence of the experimental results in the direction of bias preselected by the subject compared to that expected by chance, and the divergence in terms of standard deviations for the cumulative number of trials for a probability of 0.5 on each trial.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Cumulative Deviation by Intent from Expectation

Another way to evaluate the results of the experiments is to examine how frequently the result of an experiment (excess of one or zero bits) agrees with the subject's pre-declared goal, regardless of the magnitude of the deviation from the mean value. If the subject has chosen a goal corresponding to an excess of one bits, the experiment will be scored as a success if there is any excess of one bits at all (513 one bits out of 1024 is just as much a success as 527 one bits and, conversely, 511 one bits is as much a failure as a result of 497 one bits). If the subject chooses a goal corresponding to an excess of zero bits, the sense of the comparison is inverted: any excess of zero bits is deemed a success. To preserve symmetry, results with an equal number of zero and one bits (512 each in an experiment of 1024 bits) are considered neutral and do not change the cumulative result. Here we plot the cumulative deviation by intent as z: the number of standard deviations by which it differs from the expectation value of zero.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Intent Deviation from Expectation

Runs by Subjects Histogram

The following table shows the number of experiments run by various subjects, and the cumulative results and standard deviation for each number of experiments. Individual subjects who have made a large number of runs appear show up at the bottom of the the table, and the results they obtained can be compared.

Experiments
Run
Number of
Subjects
Hits/Tries  z 
1 10845 5545644/11105280 4.1987
2 4905 5019663/10045440 1.9290
3 3115 4781778/9569280 1.8504
4 1838 3761629/7528448 1.8915
5 1299 3325539/6650880 0.0768
6 934 2870310/5738496 0.8867
7 667 2388810/4781056 1.5714
8 506 2072753/4145152 0.1739
9 429 1976667/3953664 0.1660
10 373 1908820/3819520 0.9620
11 287 1616534/3232768 0.1669
12 240 1474945/2949120 0.4484
13 220 1463554/2928640 0.8952
14 186 1333152/2666496 0.1176
15 188 1443016/2887680 0.9698
16 143 1172237/2342912 1.0205
17 116 1009620/2019328 0.0619
18 109 1004672/2009088 0.1806
19 100 972851/1945600 0.0731
20 92 942687/1884160 0.8844
21 80 859794/1720320 0.5581
22 75 844660/1689600 0.2154
23 60 706769/1413120 0.3516
24 53 651473/1302528 0.3663
25 57 729723/1459200 0.2036
26 49 652905/1304576 1.0804
27 47 649779/1299456 0.0895
28 36 516391/1032192 0.5807
29 42 622329/1247232 2.3048
30 43 659655/1320960 1.4356
31 29 460857/920576 1.1861
32 39 639720/1277952 1.3163
33 40 676887/1351680 1.8011
34 28 487303/974848 0.2451
35 22 394613/788480 0.8401
36 35 645924/1290240 1.4156
37 29 548117/1098752 2.4022
38 33 641822/1284096 0.3989
39 22 438924/878592 0.7937
40 28 573753/1146880 0.5845
41 23 483136/965632 0.6513
42 19 408800/817152 0.4956
43 13 286496/572416 0.7613
44 17 383313/765952 0.7701
45 11 252847/506880 1.6658
46 16 376797/753664 0.0806
47 18 433577/866304 0.9132
48 12 294846/589824 0.1719
49 10 250977/501760 0.2739
50 12 306980/614400 0.5613
51 18 469876/940032 0.2888
52 15 400137/798720 1.7388
53 8 217319/434176 0.7011
54 6 166149/331776 0.9062
55 15 423089/844800 1.4992
56 11 315846/630784 1.1433
57 5 145965/291840 0.1666
58 6 178349/356352 0.5796
59 11 332521/664576 0.5716
60 7 215361/430080 0.9789
61 8 249561/499712 0.8346
62 7 222058/444416 0.4500
63 10 322642/645120 0.2042
64 7 229257/458752 0.3514
65 3 99981/199680 0.6311
66 5 169144/337920 0.6331
67 10 343305/686080 0.6399
68 4 139409/278528 0.5495
69 7 247717/494592 1.1973
70 10 358631/716800 0.5457
71 8 291104/581632 0.7553
72 6 221344/442368 0.4811
73 3 112130/224256 0.0084
74 7 264775/530432 1.2110
75 6 230329/460800 0.2092
76 7 272669/544768 0.7723
77 4 157606/315392 0.3205
78 3 119901/239616 0.3800
79 3 121651/242688 1.2464
80 2 81822/163840 0.4842
81 4 165793/331776 0.3299
82 3 125712/251904 0.9564
83 1 42549/84992 0.3636
84 3 128965/258048 0.2323
85 2 87098/174080 0.2780
86 2 88157/176128 0.4432
88 7 315437/630784 0.1133
89 2 91458/182272 1.5084
90 2 91764/184320 1.8448
91 2 93326/186368 0.6579
92 4 188362/376832 0.1759
93 4 190797/380928 1.0791
94 1 48134/96256 0.0387
95 5 242864/486400 0.9635
96 1 49291/98304 0.8867
97 4 199417/397312 2.4146
98 2 100457/200704 0.4688
99 3 151949/304128 0.4171
100 3 153696/307200 0.3464
101 6 310256/620544 0.0406
102 4 209314/417792 1.2934
103 1 52490/105472 1.5149
104 2 106431/212992 0.2817
105 1 53986/107520 1.3785
106 1 54333/108544 0.3703
107 1 54687/109568 0.5861
108 6 332283/663552 1.2448
109 1 55742/111616 0.3951
110 1 55991/112640 1.9606
111 5 284455/568320 0.7826
112 1 57242/114688 0.6024
113 2 115537/231424 0.7276
114 5 292184/583680 0.9005
115 3 176723/353280 0.2793
116 7 415920/831488 0.3860
117 2 120016/239616 0.8498
118 1 60420/120832 0.0230
119 2 121948/243712 0.3727
120 3 184392/368640 0.2372
121 1 62175/123904 1.2670
122 3 187526/374784 0.4378
123 2 125473/251904 1.9087
126 1 64538/129024 0.1448
127 1 64968/130048 0.3106
128 2 131307/262144 0.9180
129 2 131681/264192 1.6148
130 3 200179/399360 1.5792
132 1 67575/135168 0.0490
133 1 67967/136192 0.6991
134 4 273970/548864 1.2472
135 4 276475/552960 0.0134
136 3 208465/417792 1.3336
137 1 69889/140288 1.3616
139 1 71128/142336 0.2120
140 2 143432/286720 0.2689
141 1 72183/144384 0.0474
142 2 145187/290816 0.8196
143 2 146218/292864 0.7909
144 1 73807/147456 0.4115
145 2 148669/296960 0.6937
146 1 74658/149504 0.4862
148 2 151121/303104 1.5657
149 1 76391/152576 0.5274
150 2 153729/307200 0.4655
151 3 231849/463872 0.2555
153 2 156960/313344 1.0290
154 2 157861/315392 0.5876
155 1 79604/158720 1.2249
156 1 79823/159744 0.2452
157 2 160942/321536 0.6137
158 2 161417/323584 1.3185
159 2 163164/325632 1.2197
160 3 246135/491520 1.0698
161 1 82457/164864 0.1231
162 2 166230/331776 1.1875
163 2 167138/333824 0.7823
169 1 86628/173056 0.4808
170 1 86917/174080 0.5896
171 2 174975/350208 0.4360
172 2 175786/352256 1.1525
174 2 178120/356352 0.1876
175 1 89335/179200 1.2520
176 2 180539/360448 1.0493
177 1 90903/181248 1.3107
179 1 91673/183296 0.1168
180 1 92118/184320 0.1957
182 1 93122/186368 0.2872
188 3 288599/577536 0.4448
189 3 290190/580608 0.2992
191 1 97737/195584 0.2487
192 2 196641/393216 0.1053
200 1 102391/204800 0.0398
201 2 205561/411648 0.8198
202 2 206722/413696 0.3918
205 1 105150/209920 0.8294
207 1 106419/211968 1.8897
208 1 106591/212992 0.4117
210 2 215776/430080 2.2446
212 2 217415/434176 0.9925
214 1 109686/219136 0.5041
217 1 111148/222208 0.1867
219 1 112187/224256 0.2492
224 1 114861/229376 0.7224
225 1 115213/230400 0.0542
227 1 116084/232448 0.5808
232 1 118732/237568 0.2134
235 2 240535/481280 0.3027
236 2 241418/483328 0.7077
238 1 121802/243712 0.2188
240 1 122412/245760 1.8881
241 1 123381/246784 0.0443
245 1 125995/250880 2.2161
250 1 128051/256000 0.2016
251 1 128793/257024 1.1085
259 1 132992/265216 1.4913
270 1 138703/276480 1.7611
278 2 284513/569344 0.4214
282 1 144776/288768 1.4590
283 1 145414/289792 1.9245
284 1 145732/290816 1.2016
285 1 146114/291840 0.7182
291 1 149196/297984 0.7474
292 1 150030/299008 1.9239
296 1 151540/303104 0.0436
305 1 155684/312320 1.7035
306 1 155855/313344 2.9190
307 1 156831/314368 1.2592
313 1 160538/320512 0.9962
330 1 169191/337920 0.7948
332 1 169748/339968 0.8095
342 1 175610/350208 1.7101
346 1 177270/354304 0.3965
348 1 178012/356352 0.5495
349 1 178566/357376 0.4082
368 1 188552/376832 0.4431
375 1 192355/384000 1.1458
381 1 195222/390144 0.4803
401 2 411195/821248 1.2602
402 1 205946/411648 0.3803
404 1 206995/413696 0.4571
427 1 218524/437248 0.3025
431 1 221372/441344 2.1074
432 1 221384/442368 0.6014
435 1 222783/445440 0.1888
438 1 223835/448512 1.2573
440 1 225551/450560 0.8075
456 1 233269/466944 0.5941
465 1 238314/476160 0.6782
477 1 244153/488448 0.2032
483 1 248038/494592 2.1101
500 1 256526/512000 1.4702
525 1 269535/537600 2.0049
527 2 539915/1079296 0.5140
531 1 271399/543744 1.2829
539 1 275737/551936 0.6219
555 1 283962/568320 0.5253
558 1 286126/571392 1.1377
579 1 296000/592896 1.1636
618 1 316245/632832 0.4299
657 1 337081/672768 1.6995
659 1 337721/674816 0.7620
670 1 343489/686080 1.0841
680 1 347941/696320 0.5249
690 1 353395/706560 0.2736
708 1 362383/724992 0.2654
724 1 371383/741376 1.6143
748 1 383207/765952 0.5279
765 1 390911/783360 1.7377
787 1 402579/805888 0.8132
847 1 434412/867328 1.6063
864 1 442760/884736 0.8335
902 1 461910/923648 0.1790
973 1 498360/996352 0.3687
992 1 507591/1015808 0.6211
1005 1 514573/1029120 0.0256
1024 1 523462/1048576 1.6133
1027 1 525719/1051648 0.2048
1101 1 563674/1127424 0.0716
1146 1 586255/1173504 0.9176
1222 1 625524/1251328 0.2503
1261 1 645933/1291264 0.5298
1349 1 690715/1381376 0.0459
1407 1 719699/1440768 1.1414
1458 1 746586/1492992 0.1473
1481 1 758020/1516544 0.4093
1650 1 845008/1689600 0.3200
1742 1 891790/1783808 0.1707
1769 1 906121/1811456 0.5840
1947 1 996742/1993728 0.1728
2198 1 1126814/2250752 1.9170
2296 1 1174949/2351104 0.7865
2588 1 1325870/2650112 1.0001
2800 1 1433829/2867200 0.2705
4210 1 2154581/4311040 0.9045
4261 1 2181516/4363264 0.1111
4557 1 2332509/4666368 0.6249
4601 1 2355712/4711424 0.0000
4731 1 2422549/4844544 0.2517
5250 1 2689581/5376000 1.3637
6371 1 3259087/6523904 2.2434
6565 1 3361825/6722560 0.4204
8289 1 4244595/8487936 0.4304
8664 1 4433063/8871936 1.9506
12812 1 6561624/13119488 1.0381

Results by Visual Feedback Program

Feedback Program Runs Hits/Tries  z 
bellcurve 152075 77857831/155724800 0.7323
clockface 58973 30192366/60388352 0.4658
experiment 330 168864/337920 0.3303
pendulum 86747 44418404/88828928 0.8361
The table at the right shows results obtained by all subjects, sorted by the visual feedback program they selected.

Results by Goal

Goal Runs Hits/Tries  z 
0 74156 37969130/75935744 0.2887
1 223969 114668335/229344256 0.5009
Each visual feedback program allows the user to choose a goal which corresponds to either an excess of zero or one bits in the data stream. The following table gives results by goal, indicating how many times each goal was chosen. The default goal is an excess of one bits.

Control Run Report

Custom Log Report

Experiments Table of Contents

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